Iran’s steadily eroding ring of fire

The successful war against Hamas means the remainder of the Iranian axis must deal with a new reality.

By Yaakov Lappin, JNS

Iran’s ring of fire around Israel is shrinking and the Islamic Republic’s axis is not what it was several months ago, a former senior Israeli defense official says, following high profile targeted killings of Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah chief of staff Fu’ad Shukr in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

In a call with journalists organized by the Jerusalem Press Club, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, emphasized that the Israel Defense Forces’ recent achievements in Gaza represent a significant blow to the Iranian axis.

Amidror highlighted the broader implications of Israel’s operations beyond the targeted assassinations. He noted that the successful elimination of key figures in Hezbollah and Hamas is part of a larger picture.

“If we want to understand the situation, we have to look not just at the success of assassinating important people, one in Hezbollah, one the head of Hamas, but also at the situation in Gaza,” said Amidror, who is a senior research fellow at both the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America.

He pointed out that Hamas in Gaza is steadily losing its operational capabilities.

Once a formidable military-terror organization, Hamas in Gaza now operates at a fraction of its previous strength due to sustained IDF operations.

“If Hamas began October 7 with 100% capabilities, today it is at 30%. Seventy percent was destroyed by Israel,” Amidror said.

The successful war against Hamas means the remainder of the Iranian axis must deal with a new reality.

“The picture in front of decision-makers in Tehran, Beirut and elsewhere is different from a few months ago when it seemed Israel was losing its position,” Amidror said.

“The proxies, the ring of fire that they [the Iranians] build around Israel, in which the strongest element is Hezbollah, not Hamas—now, after the 7th of October, we have to finish the job in Gaza and then to think when and how and where to do the needed actions against Hezbollah.

“It might happen within few days if the situation will deteriorate. But it must be postponed for a few months, so that Israel will be in a better position to do it in the future after rebuild our stores [of munitions] and so on and so forth,” he assessed.

The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran and the success of Israel in eliminating Hezbollah’s No. 2 in Beirut show “Israel’s determination to eliminate the organizational side of Hamas, not just its military capabilities,” Amidror added.

Hamas will find someone to represent Hamas in Qatar and in Tehran in the future, said Amidror. Hamas in Gaza terror chief Yahya Sinwar is more concerned about his position in Gaza, he noted.

‘Connect intelligence to the right weapon’

Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, former head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate and current president of MIND Israel, a consultancy that advises Israeli leaders and security agencies, said that the two quality operations of Israel Defense Forces against two top terrorists, one in Beirut and one in Tehran, “show the capability to connect intelligence to the right weapon.”

Yadlin continued, “Israel is basically implementing here the Munich Olympics revenge [program] that took about a decade to assassinate all those who were involved in the Munich ’72 massacre. So Israel opted to do the same to all these that were involved in the 7 October attack, and the killing, burning, beheading and raping of our citizens in the western Negev.”

Yadlin said that he expects Hezbollah and Iran will to evaluate their next steps carefully before responding.

“Both sides are trying to find a modus operandi that will be strong enough to make a statement but not escalate to a full-scale war.”

The question remains how these developments will influence future negotiations and possible ceasefires.

Amidror speculated that the hostages’ situation in Gaza might be influenced more by the situation of the ground than by the assassination of leaders.

“For Sinwar, the situation in Gaza is much more important than the assassination of Haniyeh,” he assessed.

He listed Haniyeh, Hamas deputy politburo chief Saleh al-Arouri, who was assassinated in Beirut in January, and Hamas military-terror chief in Gaza Mohammed Deif, as well as Hamas’s No. 3 in Gaza, Marwan Issa, as being eliminated.

“So we are now four out of six from the top leaders that already punished for what they have done on the 7th of October.”

Remaining alive are Sinwar and his brother Muhammad, who appears to have replaced Deif as head of Hamas’s Al-Qassam Brigades in Gaza.

“The fact that it was done in Beirut and Tehran is to say we are learning that Gaza is not the core of the issue anymore,” said Yadlin.

“Israel is now in a war with seven fronts and the leading forces in this front are Iran and Hezbollah.”

assassinationsHamasHezbollahIranterror proxies