Offense as important as defense when it comes to missile defense

‘The issue isn’t just about whether we have enough missiles for defense. It’s also about managing resources for offense.’

By Yaakov Lappin, JNS

According to recent international media reports, just as it prepares for a potential retaliatory strike on Iran, Israel is grappling with a shortage of interceptor missiles.

However, a Western source has told JNS in recent days that the issue is more complex, and that additional factors, such as Israel’s offensive capacity to harm the enemy’s launch abilities, must also be taken into consideration.

According to a Financial Times report on Oct. 15, Israeli officials, defense analysts and industry insiders have acknowledged a depletion of Israel’s interceptor stockpiles.

It was reported on Oct. 16 that the United States had deployed its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) system to Israel to bolster the country’s air defenses.

These reports come at a time when the United States is also juggling its own military commitments, including ongoing support to Ukraine, with one former U.S. defense official stating that Washington can’t continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the current pace.

Boaz Levy, the CEO of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), which manufactures Israel’s Arrow interceptors, reportedly stated, “Some of our assembly lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations,” while noting that replenishing stocks is “not a matter of days.”

However, a Western source told JNS that, “The issue isn’t just about whether we have enough missiles for defense. It’s also about managing resources for offense.”

The threat posed by Hezbollah’s rockets, for instance, is significantly lower today than it was a year ago due to waves of Israeli Air Force strikes on Hezbollah launchers and munitions, the source explained.

“It’s not correct to fully equip ourselves to match the enemy’s entire threat. Because then you assume they will use all their resources against you all the time and you won’t be able to reduce the amount of their resources.”

The air force must, meanwhile, continuously assess how many munitions, including interceptors, it needs in comparison to the platforms—aircraft—it has available, as part of a budgetary balancing act, the source explained.

He argued that in the past, the IAF had chosen to invest too heavily in platforms and not enough in munitions, and said there was room to examine a new balance that allows for the purchasing of more offensive munitions like missiles, autonomous drones and interceptors.

The source further explained that in an environment where multiple threats exist—from land, air and sea—Israel must make strategic choices about how to allocate its resources.

This has led to selective engagement of incoming missiles, meaning that the most threatening attacks are prioritized, he added.

On Oct. 14, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a meeting with the Nagel Committee, which has been tasked with making recommendations on Israel’s defense budget and long-term defense planning.

During the meeting, the committee stressed the immediate need to secure resources for expanding missile defense capabilities, as well as ground and naval superiority. Netanyahu approved the committee’s recommendations.

Meanwhile, political considerations appear to have tainted the debate. On Oct. 15, Israeli military analyst Yossi Yehoshua tweeted that some Israeli officials view U.S. media leaks about missile shortages as part of Washington’s strategy to pressure Israel to scale back its intended operation against Iran, avoid strikes in Beirut and change course in Gaza.

“The topic is more complex than reported and has become another tool in the ongoing diplomatic confrontation” between Jerusalem and Washington, Yehoshua stated.

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