Israel heads into election with blocs tied and pollsters sharply divided

Lots of data, little certainty – Average of final polls before Tuesday’s election shows a de facto tie between the pro-Netanyahu bloc and the union of anti-Netanyahu Jewish parties seeking to unseat the prime minister, though several polls show the right with an edge.

By David Rosenberg, World Israel News

A day before Israelis head to the polls for the first Knesset election since the October 7, 2023, Hamas invasion, an average of pre-election surveys shows the coalition and Jewish opposition blocs in a statistical dead heat.

The final polls, published by 10 major Israeli outlets before the ban on new pre-election surveys went into effect Friday at midnight, show the parties currently aligned with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition with an average of 51.2 seats in total, compared to 51.4 for the Jewish parties in the “change” bloc.

The two major Arab lists running in tomorrow’s election averaged a total of 14.2 seats, while 3.2 seats went to parties that are not clearly aligned with any major bloc.

The Netanyahu coalition bloc includes the Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and the joint Religious Zionist Party ticket with Zehut.

The “change” bloc of Jewish parties includes Yashar, B’Yahad (Together), the Democrats, and Israel Beytenu.

The Arab parties include the United Arab List (Ra’am) and the Joint List alliance with Balad.

Several smaller parties, including Amcha Yisrael and the joint ticket of the Reservists Party and the New Economic Party, are not clearly aligned with either the pro-Netanyahu bloc or the “change” bloc.

The polls were published by Israel’s national broadcaster, Kan, the news sites Walla and Zman Israel, the newspapers Ma’ariv and Israel Hayom, along with the television stations Channel 12, Channel 13, Channel 14, i24NEWS (Channel 15), and Channel 16.

Seven of the 10 polls give the opposition a lead of between two and six seats over Netanyahu’s outgoing coalition, while one projects an exact tie. However, the i24NEWS and Channel 14 surveys give the coalition a substantial advantage, with Channel 14 predicting that Netanyahu’s allies will secure an outright parliamentary majority of 62 seats.

The sharpest difference concerns Likud, which receives between 17 and 30 seats across the 10 surveys. Channel 14‘s final poll, conducted by Shlomo Filber’s NEXT DATA firm, gives Likud 30 seats.

The i24NEWS poll, conducted by Direct Polls, gives Likud 26 seats and Netanyahu’s outgoing coalition partners 55 seats.

When the four seats projected for Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party are included, the broader right-wing bloc reaches 59 seats, compared with 47 for the Zionist opposition.

Notably, the final polls for each outlet were conducted and published after President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Prime Minister Netanyahu on October 18, but before his second statement endorsing the Israeli leader, posted on Trump’s Truth Social account yesterday.

Taken together, the final polls give a 14-seat range for the pro-Netanyahu bloc, ranging from 48 seats (Walla, Ma’ariv, Channel 16) to 62 seats (Channel 14),

The substantial polling discrepancies are particularly evident in the standings of the country’s two largest parties.

Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar averages approximately 22 seats, marginally ahead of Likud’s 21. Eisenkot’s party leads in eight of the 10 final surveys, while Likud finishes first in the Channel 14 and i24NEWS polls.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Together party ranks third, averaging approximately 13 seats, followed by the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, with nearly nine.

Among the outgoing coalition parties, Otzma Yehudit averages eight seats, Shas approximately eight, United Torah Judaism between seven and eight, and the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut alliance between six and seven.

The Arab parties are relatively consistent across the surveys, receiving approximately 14 seats combined, although one poll projects 16.

The results suggest that even a modest shift in support could substantially alter the parliamentary balance.

However, the greatest uncertainty may involve parties hovering around Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold.

Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party crosses the threshold in only two of the ten polls, while the Reservists–Economic joint ticket, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, receives four seats in six surveys but fails to enter the Knesset in the others.

Because a party receiving less than 3.25% of valid votes obtains no representation, relatively small differences in voter support could determine whether thousands of votes translate into parliamentary seats or are effectively removed from the allocation.

Turnout presents another important unknown.

The participation rate among Arab voters could significantly affect the number of seats available to the two Jewish-led blocs.

A strong Arab turnout would generally increase the parliamentary representation of the Joint List and United Arab List (Ra’am), potentially making it harder for Netanyahu’s coalition to reach 61.

The final survey released by Kan found that a whopping 36% of respondents had not yet made a final decision about which party they would vote for, with the highest rates of uncertainty reported among people who did not align with either of the two major blocs.

The survey found that 80% of “change” bloc voters said they were certain to vote, compared with 75% of coalition supporters.

Adding to the uncertainty is the forecast of heavy rain and thunderstorms on election day, which could disrupt voting patterns in an already exceptionally close race.

Inclement weather can depress turnout, particularly among less committed voters, but its political impact is difficult to predict and could depend heavily on which parts of the country experience the worst conditions.

With the rival blocs separated by only a handful of seats in most polls, even relatively small changes in turnout among Arab voters, ultra-Orthodox communities, or other voting blocs could have a significant impact.

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