Israelis much more open to Biden peace plan once Trump is president, poll finds

Sixty-three percent of Israeli Jews see Trump as more pro-Israel than Biden compared with the 15 percent who hold the opposite view, according to the poll.

By Andrew Tobin, The Washington Free Beacon

Israelis overwhelmingly feel safer and are prepared to take risks for peace following Donald Trump’s election as president, according to a recent poll.

Three-quarters of the Israeli public says Trump will “strengthen Israel’s security,” pollsters at Agam Labs, a political consultancy affiliated with the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, found last month.

Even larger numbers of Israelis are ready to make major concessions as part of a peace deal led by Trump—a double-digit jump compared to when Biden was the one asking.

“Sometimes, the messenger is more important than the message,” Nimrod Nir, the CEO of Agam Labs, told the Washington Free Beacon.

“The public believes that Trump supports Israel and understands Israel’s enemies in ways that Biden does not. People are more willing to trust him to deal with these issues that they see as existential.”

The findings, which have not previously been published, are the latest indication that Trump’s message of peace through strength is resonating in the Middle East 14 months after Iran and affiliated terrorist groups launched a war against Israel.

Agam Labs began tracking wartime Israeli public sentiment within days of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack on the Jewish state.

Over the course of the resulting war, Israelis have become increasingly willing to end the fighting, primarily due to growing concern for the 100 remaining hostages taken on Oct. 7.

In a poll this October, Agam Las found that 75 percent of Israelis, including 72 percent of Jews, supported a ceasefire in exchange for the release of the hostages, up from 56 percent of Jews in March.

Support for a broader peace plan pushed by Biden, meanwhile, grew more modestly, from 55 percent of Jews in March to 66 percent in October.

In addition to a hostage-ceasefire deal, Biden’s proposal included the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and Israel’s agreement to the eventual creation of a Palestinian state.

A large majority of Israelis do not consider Saudi normalization a wartime priority and oppose Palestinian statehood as an unacceptable security threat, polling has consistently found.

But according to Agam Labs’s latest poll, conducted Nov. 12-18, if Trump were to propose a version of Biden’s peace plan, the cost-benefit calculation would change for many Israelis.

Eighty-two percent of the public, including 81 percent of Jews, say such a deal “must be agreed to,” surpassing the 74 percent of Jews who back a standalone hostage-ceasefire deal.

Sixty-three percent of Israeli Jews see Trump as more pro-Israel than Biden compared with the 15 percent who hold the opposite view, according to the poll.

Eighty-three percent expect Trump to advance Saudi normalization, and 60 percent think he will provide American backing for a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Just 5 percent think Trump will interfere with U.S. security aid to Israel, and 8 percent think the president-elect will oppose an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program—two actions taken by the Biden administration.

The poll, like Agam Labs’ other omnibus polling during the war, was based on a representative sample of about 2,000 Israeli adults. The margin of error was 3 percent.

Iris Weinstein Haggai, 39, whose Israeli-American parents were both killed in the Oct. 7 attack and their bodies taken to Gaza, said she appreciates the regular briefings that the Biden administration provides her and the other hostages’ families.

But she noted that all the talking has not ended the war or brought home the remaining hostages.

“I think we need a change because we need strong leadership,” she told the Free Beacon. “It’s not that I think Biden is this horrible, weak person. I just think that Middle East doesn’t feel he is strong enough.”

Weinstein Haggai said Trump’s willingness to target the bad guys has given her hope for a hostage-ceasefire deal.

“We tried one way, which was to pressure the Israeli government. It didn’t work. It’s time to put pressure on the terrorists, which why I’m so appreciative of what Trump is doing,” she said.

“It’s like waking up the world, like what’s going on? These are internationally recognized terrorist groups, along with the Islamic Republic of Iran, that are attacking a democratic ally, Israel. Why are we giving them the benefit of the doubt? Why are we letting them control these negotiations?”

“So I’m very appreciative of that,” she added. “And, you know, I’m very careful saying this, but I’m hopeful.”

In a press conference on Monday, Trump reiterated that if the hostages were not released before his inauguration on Jan. 20, “all hell is going to break out” in the Middle East.

He also declined to rule out a U.S. or U.S.-backed Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, saying, “You don’t talk about that before something may or may not happen.”

Last Wednesday, Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, reportedly met with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Saudi Arabia and discussed the kingdom’s potential normalization with Israel.

On Fox News the same day, Rep. Mike Waltz (R., Fla.), the incoming national security adviser, vowed a return to Trump’s first-term “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign on Iran.

In an interview with Time published last Thursday, Trump declined to recommit to Palestinian statehood as he eventually did in his first term .

“I want a long lasting peace. I’m not saying that’s a very likely scenario,” Trump said. “I want a peace where we don’t have an Oct. 7 in another three years. You can do it two state, but there are numerous ways it can be done. I’d like to see everybody be happy.”

In the run-up to the election, Trump said that as president, he would reverse Biden’s “weakness” toward Iran and restore regional peace by supporting Israeli victory.

“With strength and the right leadership, the dawn of a new, more harmonious Middle East is finally within our reach,” Trump said in remarks on the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 attack.

“I will not allow a jihad to be waged on America or our allies, and I will support Israel’s right to win its war on terror, and it has to win it fast no matter what happens.”

There have been signs that Israel’s enemies have gotten the message

. Three weeks after Trump won a second term on Nov. 5, Hezbollah, a Hamas ally and fellow Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group, agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

In response, Iran backed off its threat earlier in the month to launch a third “crushing” missile attack on Israel. In recent days, Israeli and U.S. officials have expressed optimism about a hostage-ceasefire deal, saying Hamas has shown new flexibility.

Asa Shapiro, an analyst at Agam Labs and the head of advertising and marketing studies at Tel Aviv University, said that Israelis are ready for Trump to “make America great again in the Middle East.”

“We see Trump as reestablishing the United States as a superpower that is not just willing to support its allies but also to impose its will. So there is definitely a sense of relief that he is back,” Shapiro told the Free Beacon.

“At the same time, we don’t want to get on Trump’s bad side. So if he wants peace, we’d better give him peace.”

CeasefireDonald TrumpHamasJoe Bidenpeacepoll