Palestinians carrying out military buildup in violation of Oslo Accords, raising fears in Israel

The Palestinian Authority’s security forces have increasingly undertaken training and weapons upgrades beyond the scope of the policing work permitted under the Oslo Accords, raising concerns in Israel of a possible confrontation in the future.

By World Israel News Staff

The Palestinian Authority has developed security forces with increasingly military-style training and weaponry far beyond the policing role envisioned under the Oslo Accords, according to an Israel Hayom investigation that has highlighted Israeli concerns over a potential future confrontation in Judea and Samaria.

The report, published Tuesday, cites footage and open-source intelligence collected by the Behind the Scenes OSINT Cell showing Palestinian forces training with RPG-7 launchers, PKM machine guns, armored vehicles and rifles modified with telescopic sights for long-range shooting.

Training exercises documented near Jericho reportedly include urban warfare, forced entry and other infantry tactics.

Israel Hayom said Israeli political leaders are increasingly concerned about a scenario known as “turning of the guns,” in which PA security personnel who currently coordinate with Israel instead direct their weapons against Israeli forces or civilians.

A source familiar with recent closed-door security discussions told the newspaper that Israeli planners are no longer looking only at the possibility of another Palestinian uprising, but at a much larger military confrontation.

“You have to understand that this could happen at any moment,” the source said, adding that discussing the possibility “raises awareness and sharpens the senses of the security officials.”

The issue reportedly arose Monday when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz visited IDF Central Command headquarters for a broad assessment of security conditions in Judea and Samaria.

The Prime Minister’s Office confirmed that Netanyahu met with Katz, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, Central Command chief Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth, Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder and other senior security officials. The official statement described the meeting more generally as an assessment of “the security challenges” in the area.

According to Israel Hayom, Netanyahu and Katz specifically asked during the meeting to hear Central Command’s preparations for a scenario in which PA forces turn against Israel, including a potential confrontation requiring tanks and air support.

The Palestinian security apparatus includes several separate organizations, among them the National Security Forces, civil police, Preventive Security and intelligence services. Estimates of its total manpower vary significantly.

Israel Hayom placed the force at roughly 60,000 personnel, while a recent study by Lt. Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs estimated approximately 70,000.

Academic research published this year noted estimates ranging from roughly 33,500 to more than 60,000 personnel.

The Oslo agreements created what they explicitly described as a “strong police force” responsible for Palestinian internal security while prohibiting the establishment of other Palestinian armed forces.

They also placed restrictions on the weapons, ammunition and equipment the Palestinian police could possess. Israel retained responsibility for external security and overall security of Israelis.

Hirsch argues that the security organizations have long since evolved from that intended policing force into what he describes as a de facto army.

His study points to military-style exercises, foreign training and the growth of the security services since the 1990s, warning that their location close to Israel’s largest population centers makes any future breakdown in security coordination particularly dangerous.

“Continuing to ignore the strengthening of the Palestinian Authority’s ‘terror army’ is a dangerous gamble with the lives of millions of Israelis,” Hirsch wrote. “The writing is on the wall, less than 22 kilometers from the heart of the country.”

Israel Hayom reported that PA officer training now includes advanced urban combat and breaching exercises, and said some courses study the security arrangements surrounding Israeli communities and military installations.

Footage cited by the report also shows Palestinian forces using RPGs and heavy machine guns during exercises and displays in Jericho.

The OSINT group further documented personnel who had undergone training abroad using hostile rhetoric toward Israel, including the declaration, “Israel’s wall will be destroyed.”

Hirsch’s study also points to the history of Palestinian security personnel participating in violence during the Second Intifada and argues that this experience demonstrates that cooperation between Israel and the PA cannot be assumed to continue indefinitely.

At the same time, PA forces have themselves fought Palestinian militant organizations in recent years.

Security personnel carried out a prolonged operation against armed groups in Jenin beginning in late 2024, clashing with militants including members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Israel has also repeatedly pressed the PA to take stronger action against Hamas and Iranian-backed militant networks in Judea and Samaria.

Security coordination between Israel and the PA therefore remains an important part of the current security system, even as some Israeli officials warn against assuming that relationship is permanent.

The new concerns come despite a dramatic decline in recorded Palestinian attacks.

Katz said after Monday’s Central Command assessment that officials had been presented with figures showing attacks falling for a second consecutive year to historically low levels.

“The remarkable thing is the figure presented to us showing that the number of Palestinian terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria has declined for the second consecutive year, reaching levels we have never seen before,” Katz said.

Israel Hayom reported that Israeli defense data showed 75 attacks during 2024, falling to 27 in 2025. In the first half of 2026, only two attacks and five attempted attacks were recorded, followed by four attacks and two attempts between July and Tuesday.

That relative calm is precisely what some officials fear could lead Israel to underestimate a different kind of threat.

Hirsch’s analysis draws a comparison with October 7, noting that Hamas-led attackers penetrated as far as Ofakim, approximately 22 kilometers from Gaza. By contrast, major Israeli population centers sit considerably closer to parts of Judea and Samaria.

A breach westward from Qalqilya, for example, would place Highway 6 and densely populated communities in central Israel only kilometers away, while an attack from Tulkarm could threaten the Sharon region. Hirsch estimates that millions of Israelis live within 22 kilometers of PA-controlled territory.

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