Saudi analyst says Iran lost the ‘element of surprise’ by delaying revenge attack against Israel

‘Any target that strikes Israel will affect the current rules of the game.’

By Vered Weiss, World Israel News

A Saudi analyst says that Iran has lost the “element of surprise” by delaying its retaliatory attack against Israel and that it may be facing uncertainty on how to proceed.

Saudi Security and Strategic Affairs Analyst Faiz Al-Asmar shared his views in an interview with the Saudi Al-Hadath channel.

Al-Asmar observed, “Regarding the situation on the ground, Iran and Hezbollah’s delay in responding to the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr have so far allowed Israel and the U.S. to strengthen their position on the ground and use all means at their disposal.”

“A warship has recently arrived in the area. This has allowed Israel and the U.S. to increase their strength and deploy the necessary defense to repel the attack.”

Al-Asmar concluded, “As a result, Iran has essentially lost the most significant element in modern warfare, which is the element of surprise.”

“Iran’s leadership’s statements are part of a propaganda war designed to create anxiety and fear in the Israeli public.”

Al-Asmar added that Iran may be stymied regarding its next step and may be torn between the need to retaliate and the concern that its response may have to be muted, given the reluctance of having to battle the U.S. if it attacks Israel.

He said that Iran’s response is “under heavy pressure” because, on the one hand, it wants to “restore its honor in front of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and its own people” after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated on Iranian soil.

On the other hand,  said Al-Asmar, “It is worried that its response will not be sufficient, and therefore, it wants to define the context of its response carefully, lest it open the gates of hell upon itself.”

The Saudi analyst said he believed that the timing of Iran and Hezbollah’s response has likely not been determined yet, but it might occur simultaneously.

He added, “There are considerations from the ground, tactical considerations, and assessments of the situation, and therefore, the response may be executed concerning both distance and time.”

Al-Asmar added, “Any target that strikes Israel will affect the current rules of the game.”

He said that if Hezbollah decides to target an IDF base, Ministry of Defense headquarters, or the Karish oil field in the Mediterranean, “Israel might respond decisively against Hezbollah and drag Beirut into a war similar to the Gaza conflict.”

The length of the delay could itself bring back the element of surprise, as Israelis become complacent and shift focus elsewhere.

HezbollahIranretaliatory attack