Is Iran’s Khamenei dead man walking? Is Erdoğan?

If Nasrallah’s elimination has sowed confusion in Hezbollah and disrupted its command and control, what might Khamenei’s elimination do?

By Michael Rubin, Middle East Forum

Ali Larijani, a former speaker of Iran’s parliament and a close advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warned Israel in the wake of its strike on Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah that Israel was crossing all of Iran’s red lines.

If the Iranian leadership were more introspective, they might realize Israel’s campaign of targeted assassination of terror leaders is a direct result of the Islamic Republic crossing Israel’s red lines.

Over the decades, the Islamic Republic crossed many red lines that should have triggered assassinations of senior leaders.

Had the United States responded militarily to the 1979 seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, as Admiral James “Ace” Lyons counseled during the Carter administration, Iranian leaders might have reconsidered subsequent acts of terror.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps might have warned its Hezbollah proxies that seizing American hostages in Lebanon, let alone bombing the U.S. Embassy in Beirut and/or the Marine Barracks in Beirut, would force them to pay too high a price.

Certainly, bombing the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, and later the Jewish cultural center, crossed a red line. So, too, did attacking or seeking to attack Israel’s embassies in India, Thailand, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

Certainly, Larijani might see some irony in warning about red lines after the Islamic Republic enabled the single largest daily massacre of Jews since the Holocaust just under one year ago.

Not only Israel but also any other country would consider its daily bombardment by an armed group to be a casus belli.

With red lines erased, the question becomes whether Israel will continue its campaign to remove permanently the terror sponsors intent on waging war directly or by proxy against the Jewish state.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei makes no secret of his desire to eliminate Israel; President Masoud Pezeshkian is more subtle when he says Iran merely wants a referendum about Israel and Palestine’s future, leaving out that only Palestinian Arabs will be able to vote.

With Iran’s nuclear program already exceeding the uranium enrichment level of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs, Israel feels it faces an existential threat.

American policymakers may define Iranian nuclear bomb acquisition as 20 kilograms of 90 percent enriched uranium, but Iranian leaders may not allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good when it comes to their desire for genocide against the Israeli people.

If Nasrallah’s elimination has sowed confusion in Hezbollah and disrupted its command and control, what might Khamenei’s elimination do?

For Israel to target Khamenei would be legal: Under the Iranian constitution, he is commander in chief with ultimate authority over the Iranian Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The regime is already primed for Khamenei’s death, but if Israel simultaneously eliminates top contender Mojtaba Khamenei and other candidates like Mohsen Araki and Alireza Arafi, and with Ebrahim Raisi already dead in a helicopter crash, then the regime might find itself with a leadership vacuum it cannot fill.

Indeed, the Iranians recognize the possibility to be high—reports suggest they have evacuated Khamenei to a secure location.

Khamenei is not the only world leader who should be concerned. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made support for Hamas his brand. Hamas leaders openly plot attacks from their Istanbul office.

Erdoğan may believe his status as a NATO member protects him, but if he attacked Israel first, directly or by proxy, NATO Article V would not apply—nor is it clear an assassination absent a claim of responsibility would trigger it.

Iraqi leaders also should question whether distance will protect them from Israeli retaliation. Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais Khazali or firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr could soon find themselves in the same crosshairs as their friend Nasrallah.

Israeli actions would be legal under international law as well. While many diplomats and human rights activists suggest assassination is always forbidden, the legalities are far more complex and permissive.

Diplomatically, the time is right for Israel to up its campaign to eliminate terror sponsors. The United States, Europe, and the United Nations will criticize Israel no matter what it does, so Israel might as well act with a bunk buster rather than a fly swatter.

Israeli leaders also might assess that while President Joe Biden will not restrain Israel, a Kamala Harris administration might try to constrain Israel’s ability to deter or retaliate.

As such, Israel has an incentive to do as much as possible before January 20, 2025, to eliminate every threat it might face.

Khamenei and Larijani are right: The red lines that governed the conflict for decades are gone. The question is whether Khamenei, Erdoğan or other regional terror masters recognize they already may be dead men walking.

Perhaps the new red line should be this: Any support for terror groups will provoke a response too great for the supporter to bear.

assassinationsIranPresident ErdoğanSupreme Leader Ali KhameneiTerrorism