US election might be closer than polls show, says billionaire bond fund manager

Billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach believes Biden’s warning to Trump not to declare a victory too early is a sign that the election might not go Biden’s way.

By Joseph Wolkin

Former Vice President Joe Biden is reportedly ahead of President Donald Trump by 11 percent in the latest polls.

However, a hint by Biden himself might say otherwise.

Biden told the incumbent to make sure he doesn’t declare a victory too early.

Jeffrey Gundlach, billionaire CEO of DoubleLine Capital, believes that Biden’s statement is a sign that the election might not go his way. And Biden is worried about the possible uptick in protests and riots if Trump prematurely declares victory.

In Philadelphia on Sunday, Biden told reporters, “The president is not going to steal this election.”

“That doesn’t sound like a statement made by a confident politician with a comfortable lead in the polls,” Gundlach told Fox Business. “What’s he so worried about if he believes those polls? So it’s a very strange statement for him to make. I think it’s a tell that their internal polling isn’t quite close to the mainstream polls, which are used to influence rather than to gauge the possibilities.”

The issue with either candidate declaring a victory in the hours after the polls close across America this time around is the high number of absentee and/or mail-in ballots. Prior to Election Day, more than 35 million people submitted in-person ballots through early voting, with 62 million Americans casting their ballots in the mail. Overall, 97.6 million people voted prior to Election Day, compared to 2016’s combined total of 138.9 million ballots.

The high number of ballots will make the process more complicated than usual. Each state has its own process for counting the ballots, and the already complicated swing states could delay the results of the electoral college.

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“I’m predicting a Trump win with a low degree of confidence,” Gundlach said. “And I’m predicting that the Senate stays Republican with a reasonable degree of confidence.”

He isn’t the only person who is again predicting a Trump victory after doing so in 2016. Stony Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth is doing the same.

The political scientist says Trump has a 90 percent chance to be reelected in 2020. Norpoth’s primary model formula has accurately predicted 25 of the previous 27 presidential elections.

“It’s all about primary elections, which are real electoral contests, and the votes are counted and tabulated,” Norpoth said. “I also use real numbers, such as the results of previous elections, which indicate whether the pendulum is swinging away from or toward the White House party. This is something that also relies on real election results and not any kind of an opinion poll.”