‘Weakens its image’: Experts explain why Hezbollah stopped announcing terrorist deaths over past two months

‘Hezbollah may want to cover up such losses as it weakens its image as Iran’s terror proxy crown jewel of resistance,’ Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) stated.

By Jack Elbaum, The Algemeiner

Since the war between Israel and Hezbollah began to escalate this September, the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist organization has stopped announcing its casualties through public relations channels.

Experts tell The Algemeiner this is likely because of the breakdown of Hezbollah’s command and control structure or in order to help control narratives around the conflict.

Rather than death notices being published by Hezbollah itself — as was the case from October 2023 to September 2024 — terrorist deaths have mainly been reported by open intelligence sources based on funeral notices and social media posts.

Israeli assessments suggest that over 2,000 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since October 2023, said Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).

This number includes upwards of 1,000 terrorists killed since the situation in northern Israel, which borders Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Lebanon, began to escalate just under two months ago.

Brodsky’s approximate number is somewhat supported by at least one open-source intelligence gatherer who has identified almost 1,500 Hezbollah casualties as of Nov. 11, 2024, primarily using funeral notices found on local social media channels.

This includes about 900 deaths since September. Experts estimate the number of Hezbollah fighters wounded to be three or four times higher than the death count, including the thousands of Hezbollah fighters injured in Israel’s pager attack in September, when communications devices used by the terrorists exploded simultaneously across Lebanon.

Hezbollah is widely considered to have a pre-war fighting force of around 20,000-25,000 militiamen working full-time, with tens of thousands more in the reserves.

Hezbollah has good reason, experts say, to hide its true casualty numbers as the terrorist organization appears to still be suffering from command-and-control disruptions due to Israeli military pressure.

As a result, Hezbollah has been forced to use guerilla tactics rather than operating as a coherent military force.

While Israel has suffered almost 100 civilian and military casualties in its offensive against Hezbollah, along with relentless rocket fire and drone attacks from the Islamist organization on the country’s north — and at times, in the heart of Tel Aviv — the level of damage to Israel’s home front and critical infrastructure has been far less than expected.

Max Abrahms, professor of international relations at Northeastern University, explained that terrorist groups such as Hezbollah often lie.

“Sometimes they conceal information about their own losses,” he said.

“The reason why they do that,” Abrahms continued, “is because they want to create the perception that they’re more successful than they really are. And terrorist groups very often have to do that because, in general, terrorist groups are losers.”

Over the past few months, Israel has decimated the leadership of Hezbollah, with almost its entire top level of command being killed — including Hassan Nasrallah, its longtime leader.

Israel has long been worried that a war with Hezbollah could result in massive losses for the Jewish state, as the Lebanese terror group reportedly had more than 120,000 rockets over various ranges in its arsenal, primarily sponsored by Iran. Israeli estimates suggest Hezbollah now retains only 20 percent of its missile arsenal and that Israel has eliminated 70 percent of its drone arsenal, according to Brodsky.

“Hezbollah may want to cover up such losses as it weakens its image as Iran’s terror proxy crown jewel of resistance,” Brodsky added.

Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former White House deputy national security adviser, agreed.

“The usual terrorist pattern is to exaggerate the number of civilian casualties and deny the number of terrorists killed,” he said. “This is done to mask the impact of Israeli strikes on armed Hezbollah men and keep up Hezbollah morale.”

After Israel’s pager attack, air and ground campaign, and targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders, the group is struggling to keep up its rocket fire and military operations against Israel.

At the same time, Hezbollah may still be able to manufacture weapons.

“Hezbollah may still have capacity to manufacture missiles and drones in Lebanon proper, and that’s not to mention ongoing Iranian attempts to ship weapons and supplies,” Abrams said.

“But, those corridors have become more restricted with Israel’s operations.”

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