Dramatic exit poll shift gives Netanyahu majority as others show deadlock

If Channel 14’s projection proves accurate, Netanyahu would have enough seats to form a government with his existing right-wing and religious partners.

By World Israel News Staff

Voting in Israel’s national election came to an end at 10 p.m. Tuesday, with sharply conflicting exit polls offering dramatically different pictures of the country’s political future and one updated projection giving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu enough seats to form a majority government.

Channel 14 updated its unofficial exit poll late Tuesday night to give Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc 62 seats, crossing the 61-seat threshold required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

The shift represents a significant change from the network’s initial projection, which gave Netanyahu’s bloc 60 seats, and puts Channel 14 sharply at odds with Israel’s other major television networks.

Under Channel 14’s updated projection, Likud wins 31 seats, Shas 10, Otzma Yehudit seven, United Torah Judaism seven and Religious Zionism seven.

Together, the five parties would give Netanyahu a narrow but sufficient 62-seat majority and allow him to form another right-wing government without recruiting an additional coalition partner.

A major factor in the change is Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, which Channel 14 now projects will fail to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold and therefore receive no Knesset seats.

That would have major consequences for the distribution of mandates. Yisrael Beiteinu is projected to comfortably enter the Knesset by the other major networks. If the party instead falls below the threshold, its votes would not translate into seats, increasing the relative weight of the parties that do qualify.

Channel 14’s updated projection gives the opposition bloc 40 seats and the Arab parties 18.

The other major television networks still do not project a Netanyahu majority, although an updated Channel 13 poll has moved the race considerably closer.

Channel 13 increased Likud by two seats to 27 in its latest projection, producing a 51-51 tie between Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposing bloc. The remaining 18 seats are projected to go to the Arab parties.

The update represents a significant improvement for Netanyahu from Channel 13’s initial exit poll, which gave Likud 25 seats and put his bloc at 50 compared with 53 for the opposition.

Channel 12’s updated exit poll projects Likud at 24 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar at 22 and Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad at 12. The Joint List receives 11, the Democrats 10, Shas eight, Yisrael Beiteinu eight, Ra’am seven, and United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism six each.

That leaves Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats, the opposing bloc at 52 and the Arab parties at 18.

Kan’s updated projection shows a similar picture. The Joint List rose to 11 seats while B’Yachad fell to 13, leaving Netanyahu’s bloc at 50, the opposing bloc at 52 and the Arab parties at 18.

The updated projections therefore range from a 62-seat Netanyahu majority on Channel 14 to a 51-51 tie between the main blocs on Channel 13 and a narrow advantage for Netanyahu’s opponents on Channel 12 and Kan.

The discrepancies make the actual vote count, particularly the performance of parties close to the electoral threshold, potentially decisive.

Yisrael Beiteinu is now at the center of that uncertainty. If Lieberman’s party clears the threshold as Channels 12, 13 and Kan project, the political map could remain deadlocked. If it fails to enter the Knesset, as Channel 14 projects, the redistribution of mandates could dramatically strengthen Netanyahu’s chances of reaching 61.

Several smaller parties also appear to have fallen short of the threshold. Their failure to enter the Knesset could have an outsized effect on the final distribution of seats, particularly in an election where one or two mandates could determine who can form a government.

The Arab parties are also a factor in the difficult coalition arithmetic, though their projected totals are relatively consistent across the networks. The latest exit polls generally give the Joint List and Ra’am a combined 18 seats, substantially higher than the 10 seats held by Arab parties in the outgoing Knesset.

The projections were released following an Election Day that saw final turnout reach 77.7%, up 7.1 percentage points from 2022 and the highest overall turnout since 1999.

If Channel 14’s projection proves accurate, Netanyahu would have enough seats to form a government with his existing right-wing and religious partners.

If the other networks are closer to the final result, however, neither Netanyahu nor the parties opposing him would have a straightforward path to 61. That could trigger intense coalition negotiations, attempts to bring parties across the current political divide, or discussions over alternative governing arrangements.

After the official results are finalized, the president will consult with the elected parties and task the Knesset member believed to have the best chance of forming a government with assembling a coalition.

For now, all of the television figures remain unofficial exit-poll projections rather than actual election results.

The actual count, and particularly the fate of parties near the electoral threshold, will determine which of those sharply different scenarios comes closest to Israel’s final election result.

Benjamin Netanyahuexit pollsGadi EisenkotIsraeli elections 2026