Just 3% of Israelis believe Trump’s Gaza plan will succeed, plurality back annexing Judea & Samaria

New poll shows pluralities of both Israeli Jews and Arabs back applying Israeli sovereignty to all of Judea and Samaria.

By David Rosenberg, World Israel News

The vast majority of Israelis do not believe President Donald Trump’s Gaza plan will result in Hamas disarming and Israel withdrawing from the enclave, according to a new survey published this week.

The poll also found confidence in Trump at a low point and growing support among Israeli Jews for applying sovereignty to all of Judea and Samaria.

The August Israeli Society Index, released Monday by the Jewish People Policy Institute, found that just 3% of Israelis expect the Gaza arrangement to be fully implemented, with Hamas giving up all its weapons and Israel withdrawing from the entire territory.

Among Jewish respondents, support for that prediction was effectively zero.

Instead, 58% of Israelis said they expect the agreement not to be implemented and the current situation in Gaza to remain largely unchanged.

The figure rose to 63% among Jews. Another 15% forecast a partial implementation in which Hamas relinquishes some weapons and Israel withdraws from part of Gaza, while 13% expect the agreement to collapse into renewed fighting.

The skepticism cut unusually evenly across Israel’s political spectrum.

The share expecting the agreement to fail ranged from 57% among centrists to 66% on the right.

Religious differences were similarly small, with 62% of secular Jews and 66% of ultra-Orthodox Jews predicting that the agreement would not be carried out.

JPPI characterized the result as one of the rare cases in which Israelis across the political spectrum hold nearly identical views of a major American initiative.

JPPI President Yedidya Stern said the results showed “deep pessimism among Israelis” over the future of Gaza.

“This does not indicate a fundamental preference by Israelis for the continued occupation of Gaza,” Stern said, attributing the result instead to distrust of Hamas.

The findings come as the Trump administration struggles to move its latest Gaza initiative forward.

Trump envoy Jared Kushner held talks this week with both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas representatives, but the discussions ended without a breakthrough.

Israel has insisted that Hamas fully disarm before Israeli forces withdraw, while Hamas has demanded steps toward an Israeli withdrawal and an end to attacks as part of the process.

Netanyahu publicly rejected key elements of the US-backed 15-point proposal earlier this month, declaring that Israel would not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas had been genuinely disarmed.

US officials have maintained that the plan remains in force and negotiations over its implementation are continuing.

Israelis losing confidence in Trump

The JPPI survey also found a steep decline in Israeli confidence in Trump, whose popularity in Israel had historically been unusually high for an American president.

Only 10% of Israelis now say they have “a lot of confidence” that Trump will “do the right thing” regarding US-Israel relations, down from 34% six months ago.

Forty-six percent said they have no confidence in him, the highest figure JPPI has recorded since Trump returned to office in January 2025.

Even among respondents on the political right, only 15% expressed high confidence in Trump.

Ten percent of both Jewish and Arab respondents expressed high confidence, while 44% of Jews and 56% of Arabs said they had no confidence in the president.

The decline comes amid increasing friction between Trump and Netanyahu over Gaza and other regional issues.

Trump has recently pressed Israel to curb military operations in Gaza while Washington attempts to advance the disarmament agreement.

The president has also stopped short of endorsing Netanyahu in Israel’s October 27 election despite previously indicating that he was inclined to do so.

Israelis increasingly pessimistic over Iran

Public confidence in Israel’s ability to achieve its objectives against Iran has also deteriorated.

Thirty-four percent of Israelis said developments in recent weeks had reduced Israel’s chances of accomplishing its goals against Tehran, compared with 14% who believed those chances had improved.

Forty-six percent said the situation had essentially not changed.

JPPI said the finding continued a months-long decline in optimism following Israel’s renewed campaign against Iran in March.

During that fighting, 72% of Israelis said the decision to attack Iran again was correct and 65% believed the conflict would improve the Middle East over the long term.

By May, support for the decision to strike had fallen to 59% and optimism about the regional impact to 52%. In June, just 37% said Israel had achieved most or a substantial portion of its goals.

Following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement in July, only 14% of Israelis — and just 4% of Jewish respondents — believed the agreement was good for Israel.

More broadly, only 38% of respondents currently believe Israel is winning or has won the wider war, unchanged from the previous two months but sharply below the 54% who said the same in July 2025.

Four in 10 Jews favor annexing all of Judea and Samaria

The poll also documented a significant shift in Israeli Jewish attitudes toward the future of Judea and Samaria.

Thirty-eight percent of Jewish respondents selected some form of full Israeli annexation as their preferred long-term outcome, compared with 35% who favored dividing the territory.

Another 12% favored effectively maintaining the present situation for decades.

Among those supporting full annexation, the most popular option was also the most far-reaching: 22% of all Jewish respondents favored annexing the entire territory with the Palestinian population moving to other countries.

Another 14% backed annexation while granting Palestinians autonomy without Israeli citizenship.

Fewer than 1% supported annexing the territory and granting its Palestinian residents full Israeli citizenship.

Among Jews favoring territorial division, 21% of all Jewish respondents supported creating a Palestinian state in areas with an Arab majority, while 14% favored placing predominantly Arab areas under Jordanian sovereignty.

Support for full annexation varied sharply by religiosity, rising from 17% among secular Jews to 36% among traditional non-religious Jews, 56% among traditional-religious Jews, 68% among religious Jews and 70% among ultra-Orthodox Jews.

JPPI said the results fit a longer-term rightward movement in public attitudes.

The share of Jewish respondents choosing a position calling for Israel to strengthen its control over Palestinians, expand settlements, consider dismantling the Palestinian Authority and potentially annex territory rose from 38% in 2024 to 47% in 2025 and 48% this year.

Support for an agreement involving a Palestinian state fell from 17% to 14% over the same period.

Notably, annexation is also the most popular approach among Israeli Arabs for the future of Judea and Samaria, with 34% supporting Israeli sovereignty over all of Judea and Samaria.

However, in contrast to Jewish supporters of annexation, most Israeli Arabs who back that approach also favor granting full citizenship to Palestinian Arabs.

Just 7% of Israeli Arabs back an arrangement under which Israel annexes all of Judea and Samaria and the Palestinian Arab population relocates to other countries.

Security dominates upcoming election

The poll was conducted less than three months before Israel’s October 27 national election, the country’s first general election since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

Fifty-five percent of Israelis said they were completely certain which party they would support, while another 29% were fairly certain. Just 12% described themselves as undecided, down from 14% in July.

Security remained the most important election issue, cited by 31% of respondents, up from 28% in July.

Seventeen percent cited relations between the government and judiciary, while 15% selected greater national unity and fewer internal divisions.

The desire for unity was particularly pronounced among voters who have yet to make a final decision, suggesting that the center of the electorate could prove decisive in a contest in which Netanyahu’s Likud is struggling to rebuild support lost since October 7.

“The gap between Likud party members and Likud voters and the general public has increased substantially,” Hebrew University analyst Nimrod Nir said, warning that the divide could have “a dramatic effect on Netanyahu’s ability to win.”

The JPPI survey was conducted August 2-5 among 545 Jewish respondents and 203 Arab respondents. The results were weighted by voting behavior and religiosity to represent Israel’s adult population.

AnnexationJudea and SamariaSovereigntyTrump Gaza plan