Gazans beginning to regret October 7th invasion – poll

Only 39% still back the decision to attack Israel on October 7, while PA Arabs sharply differ, with 64% standing behind it.

By Batya Jerenberg, World Israel News

A Palestinian poll published Tuesday shows that for the first time in nearly a year of fighting, only a minority of Gazans still support Hamas’ October 7th invasion of Israel.

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) survey showed that only 39% still backed the invasion, a massive drop of 18 percentage points from the last survey three months ago.

Among Palestinian Authority (PA) Arabs, the decision to attack still enjoys 64% support, although this number reflects a drop of 13 points since the last poll, conducted in June. Taken together, a slight majority of 53% still say that Hamas was correct to invade.

The PCPSR noted that this support “does not necessarily mean support for Hamas and does not mean support for any killings or atrocities committed against civilians,” citing the statistic that almost 90% of the public does not believe that Hamas forces committed “the atrocities depicted in videos taken on that day.”

Instead, Palestinians back the attack because they believe that it “put the Palestinian issue at the center of attention and eliminated years of neglect at the regional and international levels,” the Center said.

This does not necessarily translate to an expectation that Hamas will win the war against Israel, although again there is a sharp dichotomy between the Gazans who are experiencing it, and PA Arabs who are not.

While in June the conviction that Hamas would ultimately be victorious was split almost evenly among Gazans, with 48% believing this was true, the latest poll shows a hard drop to 28%.

PA Arabs are much more optimistic, with 65% saying Hamas would win, although this does reflect a drop of 14 points from the last poll.

The contrast continued with the question of who will control Gaza after the war, with 37% of Strip residents (down from 46%) and fully 70% of PA Arabs saying Hamas will continue to rule the coastal enclave.

When asked whom they prefer to govern them, similar numbers said Hamas, while overall 20% chose the PA, 12% preferred international forces, and four percent said the IDF.

The survey also asked respondents to grade their satisfaction with how regional actors are supporting them.

Yemen came first by a large margin with 69%, most probably on the basis of the missile attacks on Israel by the country’s Houthi terrorists.

Hezbollah, which has launched some 8,000 rockets, UAV and other airborne threats at Israel since October 8 to support Hamas, came in second, at 44%.

Qatar, which has supported Hamas with billions of dollars over the years and is now acting as a mediator in negotiations for a hostages-for-ceasefire deal, was a close third at 43%.

Iran only received an approving nod from 33%, which is a 16-point drop from June. This, said the polling agency, “seems to be due to the belief of the overwhelming majority (76%) that it will not retaliate for the assassination of [Hamas political head] Ismail Haniyeh on its soil.”

Armed struggle was considered the most effective way to gain a state by 48%, a drop of six points from June. The three-month drop was extremely sharp in Gaza, however – a whopping 20 points. Negotiations were a distant second at 30%, although this represented a five point rise.

The PCPSR said it conducted its survey by telephone or tablet in areas of the Gaza Strip where there was no fighting currently going on, but noted that it excluded the quiet northern section due to technical difficulties. In all, 1,200 people were surveyed, 790 in the PA and 410 in Gaza. The margin of error was 3.5%.

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