‘Our enemies’ core assumptions have been shattered’

Ben Shabbat cautioned however that Israel’s adversaries are not yet defeated, stating, ‘Our enemies in Lebanon and Gaza have been dealt severe blows, but a hard and surprising hit does not necessarily mean it’s decisive or fatal.’

By Yaakov Lappin, JNS

Recent events have shaken assumptions by Israel’s enemies regarding the strength of the Jewish state and Israeli society, according to former Israeli National Security Adviser Meir Ben Shabbat.

Reflecting on the past year and particularly recent weeks, Ben Shabbat, currently head of the Misgav Institute for National Security, highlighted to JNS on Wednesday how Israel’s resilience and daring, sustained military operations have disrupted core beliefs of Hezbollah and its sponsors in Iran regarding Israel’s ability to endure extended warfare.

At the same time, he cautioned against complacency, and warned that a long fight remained ahead, with Israel now determined to fundamentally change the regional security reality, and not make do with victory pictures.

Ben Shabbat referred to the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s infamous “spider web” speech, delivered in Bint Jbeil, Southern Lebanon, in May 2000 after the Israel Defense Forces’ withdrawal from Lebanon.

In this speech, Nasrallah declared that Israeli society only appeared strong, but lacked the resilience to endure war, describing Israel as “weaker than a spider’s web.”

“Nasrallah and his partners were convinced that Israeli society is weary of war and lacks the resilience to endure a bloody conflict or sustain casualties,” said Ben Shabbat.

This conviction was reinforced further during 2023, when deep divisions and polarization erupted in Israeli society.

However, he added, the events of the past year have shattered all of these assumptions, with Israel demonstrating its ability to manage a long war on multiple fronts while remaining steadfast in its objectives.

“Nasrallah and our other enemies failed to understand the true nature of Israel or the profound impact that Oct. 7—and the shake-up it caused—had on Israeli thinking and behavior,” he added.

Ben Shabbat cited a speech by Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, delivered at the United Nations two weeks ago, in which he stated that “in the past year, the world was witness to Israel’s true nature.”

While Pezeshkian “intended to accuse Israel of crimes against humanity, like Balaam [the non-Israelite biblical prophet], his intended curse ended up being an accurate observation and a compliment: Israel during the year of war after Oct. 7 presents its real nature: Belief, boldness, sophistication and determination against all who rise against it,” said Ben Shabbat.

As a result, there has been a shift among what is left of Hezbollah’s leadership, he continued, especially after Naim Qassem, Nasrallah’s deputy and one of Hezbollah’s founders, appeared to call for a ceasefire in Lebanon during a speech on Tuesday.

Notably, he did not link the call to the ongoing fighting against Hamas in Gaza—a linkage Nasrallah insisted on throughout almost a year of conflict.

“This is a good indication of the organization’s position and shows that Israel has succeeded in breaking the connection that Nasrallah had established between the fighting in Lebanon and the fighting in Gaza,” contended Ben Shabbat.

While Hezbollah remains closely tied to Iran, much more so than Hamas, and this connection remains strong, the group’s political position within Lebanon has weakened, he said.

“Anti-Hezbollah forces in Lebanon now have an opportunity to raise their head and come out against the organization that has held the entire country hostage, in a struggle it conducted against us under Iranian sponsorship and support,” he added.

Asked whether Israel could prevent Iran from rearming Hezbollah, Ben Shabbat noted that Israel is actively working toward that goal.

“Israel is taking action to counter the enemy’s efforts to strengthen itself, and while it is a complex battle, the battle to stop this is inevitable,” he said. “It of course also requires steps to limit Iran’s [moves] in this area, and its ability to fund Hezbollah’s growth and the other proxy organizations it activates.”

The collapse of Nasrallah’s “spider web” theory, according to Ben Shabbat, is being observed across the region and beyond. Not only are Tehran and its proxy militias taking note, but also others suffering under Iranian influence, he said.

“Lebanese power brokers now have an opportunity, which was until now a dream only, to free themselves from Hezbollah’s oppressive shadow. Sunni leaders in the region, too, have a chance to set red lines regarding Iran’s malicious presence in their territories, or on their borders,” he said.

Ben Shabbat highlighted how recent events have reinforced Israel’s strategic value to Washington and other global powers. The U.S. presidential candidates, the leaders of Russia and China and heads of state from countries still formulating their stance toward Israel are all keenly observing events, he explained.

“If there was ever any doubt about Israel’s value to Washington, the events of the past few days have dispelled it. If there was a need to prove that Israel is the arrowhead in dealing with the forces of evil of Iran, this war provided it. Alongside concern over deterioration into general war, one can also sense optimism following the achievements of the campaign,” he stated.

Ben Shabbat cautioned however that Israel’s adversaries are not yet defeated, stating, “Our enemies in Lebanon and Gaza have been dealt severe blows, but a hard and surprising hit does not necessarily mean it’s decisive or fatal.”

The test, he said, lies in the ability of these enemies to recover and continue their activities. “There is still much work to be done, and it will be complete only when we return the hostages and can declare that the Iranian octopus has finally lost these two tentacles.”

Reflecting on Israel’s history, Ben Shabbat concluded with a message of perseverance.

“The people of Israel have known great disasters throughout history, but we have never sunk into the depths of despair. Our faith has not cracked, and our spirit has never been broken. When we fall, we rise again, and from every crisis, we grew. Israel is eternal.”

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