Time is ticking on a new conflict in the Middle East. The chess pieces are being put in place. The Iranian regime would be foolish to believe the restraints of the last 45 years apply today.
By Michael Rubin, Middle East Forum
Is an Attack on Iran Likely?
Yes. Imminent? Perhaps.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has ordered advanced B-2 stealth bombers to the U.S. base in the Indian Ocean archipelago of Diego Garcia.
The move is symbolically important. Not only are the B-2s among America’s most sophisticated aircraft, but nearly every significant U.S. military engagement in the Middle East dating back to Operation Desert Storm in 1991 began with bomber sorties launched from Diego Garcia.
B-2 Bombers Close to Iran: Why Do This?
For more than 45 years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has operated with virtual impunity as it has directly or indirectly contributed to the deaths of thousands of Americans.
Yet, as the late Admiral James “Ace” Lyons showed, every U.S. administration since Jimmy Carter’s has given the Iranian leadership a de facto pass.
The Iranian regime played Carter’s almost religious faith in the possibility of diplomacy, while Ronald Reagan’s Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger blunted retaliation for the 1983 Marine Barracks bombing for fear of angering Saudi Arabia.
From George H.W. Bush onward, both Republican and Democratic administrations hoped to engage the Islamic Republic, and believed holding Iran accountable for its actions or those of its proxies might undercut the possibility of diplomacy.
Four things now upend traditional American restraint. First, President Donald Trump does not constrain himself with diplomatic received wisdom.
Regional states understand this following the targeting killing of Qods Force General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.
Second, Iran’s nuclear progress is now undeniable. Proponents of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action can castigate Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement for Iran’s enrichment surge but they elide two facts: Iran’s enrichment occurred not after Trump withdrew but rather when the Biden administration scrapped “Maximum Pressure” sanctions and the 2015 nuclear deal did not relieve Iran of its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations.
Third, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has shredded redlines as he has attacked Israel directly.
Indeed, it appears Khamenei may want the United States to attack, calculating that he can rally Iranians around the flag to make up for his declining legitimacy.
He may get this wrong, especially if Israel can act with precision and avoid collateral damage. This isn’t far-fetched. Iranians today condemn the 1953 countercoup against Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddegh, but they remain silent on the U.S. occupation of Iran just a decade earlier.
The fourth item is the 85-year-old supreme leader’s psychology. Khamenei has dedicated his entire life to destroying Israel; his ego wants to see the job completed before he himself dies.
Hitting Iran Is Not Slam Dunk
A military strike on Iran would be difficult. Israeli pilots are not suicidal, so even if they flew in with surprise, once they dropped their ordinance, they would lose that surprise.
Accordingly, any significant military action to eradicate Iran’s nuclear program, its terror infrastructure, or the regime would first require striking enemy airfields, command-and-control centers, and anti-aircraft batteries, all requiring a minimum of 1,400 sorties.
The only good news is that Israel would not need to destroy the nuclear facilities buried under mountains; it would only need to destroy their entrances and exits. Traditionally, the U.S. nightmare scenario was that Israel would start a conflict that it could not complete.
Israel assuaged those concerns with its retaliatory strikes in April and October 2024. Its precision also alleviated some concerns.
Trump’s team also understands that the Israeli Navy pilots more German submarines than the German Navy does. While the Jewish state needs weaponry, the Trump administration appears ready to oblige.
One metric to determine U.S. seriousness will also be the withdrawal of U.S. aircraft carriers from the Persian Gulf. This may sound counterintuitive, but carriers so close to Iran and in shallow water are vulnerable to drones, mines, speed boats, and anti-ship missiles.
Parked 400 miles away in the northern Indian Ocean? U.S. aircraft could strike at Iran but not face retaliation.
What Happens After an Iran Strike?
The U.S. concern now is what might occur after a strike. Hezbollah’s emasculation alleviated some of these concerns. Khamenei might scream into the wind, but rhetoric won’t win wars.
U.S. facilities in the Persian Gulf—especially Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain—would be on high alert, but the aircraft carriers parked outside of Iran’s range could deter this.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also likely realizes it cannot count on any group besides the Houthis. Those Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’ite militias?
Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani has successfully forced them to stand down for the past year, something for which he does not get enough credit.
Time is ticking on a new conflict in the Middle East. The chess pieces are being put in place. The Iranian regime would be foolish to believe the restraints of the last 45 years apply today. Is an attack likely? Yes.
Imminence will be signaled by a repositioning of U.S. ships outside the Persian Gulf to contain conflict or launch a second strike if necessary.
