Israel is at a crossroads in Gaza

Israel must be very alert to the danger of outside actors seeking to impose a Lebanese-Hezbollah model in Gaza, which would enable Hamas to rebuild its terror army and political power.

By Yaakov Lappin, JNS

Over a year into its military campaign to dismantle Hamas’s terror army and Islamist regime in Gaza, Israel stands at a crossroads, former Israeli defense officials have told JNS.

Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur, former deputy head of the Palestinian arena at the Israel Defense Forces Planning Branch and a former naval intelligence officer, emphasized the unprecedented nature of Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

Reflecting on the IDF’s ability to penetrate deeply entrenched enemy positions, he stated, “I believe that what we’ve accomplished here is to demonstrate how to deal with terror embedded within a civilian population, with minimal casualties on the other side. Despite the numbers being reported, even if we take the figures released by the Hamas-run Health Ministry, which include [enemy combatants], we’ll find that the impact on the civilian population is very, very measured,” he stated.

“What has been done here is an extraordinary act of warfare. At the tactical level, there is nothing to fault in any of the sectors; the tactics are remarkable. The military action should continue. However, I think the strategic level is what undermines the tactical level, unfortunately,” Yagur cautioned.

He stressed the importance of integrating civilian considerations into the elimination of Hamas as a governing force.

“The civilian-cognitive aspect has a very, very, very significant meaning in this military act. We need to understand this and start speaking this combined language,” he said.

Yagur advocates a parallel approach that addresses both military and civilian governance aspects.

While there have been all kinds of unsuccessful attempts by the IDF to work with local clans, “I believe the IDF has not sufficiently pushed forward on this, and neither has the government,” he said.

“They did not sufficiently understand the significance of it,” he added.

The first step, he said, is removing Hamas’s ability to steal and distribute humanitarian aid, and having the IDF take over distribution temporarily. Hamas must also be ejected from the remaining Gazan local municipalities, like in southern Gaza, he added.

IDF senior command has resisted these ideas, citing a lack of resources. As such, Yagur said, a new idea is on the agenda—bringing in American private security companies, the members of which are former U.S. forces and who, under IDF protection, can help create “humanitarian bubbles” in Gaza.

Within these areas, these private companies will distribute the humanitarian aid to the Gazan population, making Hamas redundant—according to Yagur the worst blow the terrorist group can receive.

“As soon as you make Hamas redundant, it starts to feel pressure, because currently it sees itself as highly relevant on the day after” the war.

“Every action Hamas takes now, and its so-called firm stance in hostage negotiation talks, assuming it even knows where all the hostages are, are designed only to preserve itself as a relevant actor in Gaza on the day after. And, by the way, [Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud] Abbas is enabling Hamas to do this,” said Yagur.

Israel must be very alert to the danger of outside actors seeking to impose a Lebanese-Hezbollah model in Gaza, which would enable Hamas to rebuild its terror army and political power.

“We have to wake up, and the sooner the better, and fill this void that is called the civilian—political issue,” he stated.

According to Moshe Fuzaylov, a research associate at the Misgav Institute for National Security and former senior Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) official, defeating Hamas is a prerequisite for regional stability.

“The path to releasing the hostages and creating hope for peace and prosperity in the Middle East begins with the decisive defeat of Hamas in Gaza,” he told JNS.

“In the past year since the events of October 2023, we can see Hamas in the arena as a boxer with a neutralized arm, bleeding and dealing with destructive blows, falling again and again to the mat—and yet, standing back on his feet.”

What’s needed, he said, is a knockout blow—in the form of excluding Hamas from the administration of Gaza.

“Israel needs to act for a clear and unequivocal defeat of Hamas, during which the IDF will control the territories of the Strip, cleanse the area of terror centers, and transfer security responsibility to the IDF, via its Civil Administration, or to partner mediators. This is a critical condition for the process of defeating Hamas. IDF management will enable us to control the civilian power centers, and ensure that Hamas cannot recruit renewed support among the local population.”

Fuzaylov underscored the importance of establishing Israeli military and civilian oversight in Gaza, which will “will help us set priorities in the area, prevent Hamas from spreading dangerous ideologies and recruit the local population for struggle. By doing so, we can exploit our advantage as a strong army to influence reality in the Strip and lead to a cognitive change among the residents—an awareness that under Israeli control, there are real possibilities for rehabilitation, welfare and even peace.”

He argued that such actions will expedite negotiations for the release of hostages and lay the groundwork for long-term agreements that ensure security for Israel and peace-seeking people of the region.

Fuzaylov advocates for a Marshall Plan-like approach to rebuild Gaza post-Hamas.

“I propose adopting a similar approach to the Marshall Plan in the Middle East—a plan that will require us, along with international partners, mainly moderate Sunni countries and the United States, to invest in infrastructure, education, health and economy in Gaza,” he said.

“The more the defeat of Hamas is clear and absolute, so increases the chance to achieve real peace and long-term civil prosperity,” he argued.

Professor Col. (res.) Gabi Siboni, a senior fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security, stated during a webinar published by the Israel Center for Grand Strategy on Sunday that expectations of an imminent end to combat in general in Gaza are unrealistic.

“I just want to remind us all that we have been fighting in Judea and Samaria since 2002, and we are still fighting, and probably in Gaza, we will fight for decades ahead,” he said.

“The Israeli government’s goals are very clear: one, the destruction of Hamas, both civilian governance and military capabilities; two, creating conditions for the return of the hostages; and three, preventing Gaza from becoming a renewed threat to Israel,” he stated.

Siboni, too, criticized the lack of momentum in establishing civilian governance in Gaza, stating, “It’s a strategic failure of our security and military system that is still not ready to grasp the bull by the horns … to provide an answer through a partial temporary military government in the Gaza Strip.”

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