Khamenei’s base may abandon him

Israel’s almost certain retaliation this time will likely deter future attacks by humiliating Khamenei before his base and more importantly, this embarrassment could prompt the conservative youth to reconsider their loyalty to him.

By Shay Khatiri, Middle East Forum

For nearly a year, Iran has stood by as Israel wages its war in Gaza. For a regime that derives much of its legitimacy from anti-Zionism, this has become a critical moment.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s inaction has undermined his standing among the religiously conservative youth who uphold his regime.

The situation has reached a boiling point following Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in Lebanon. On Telegram channels, conservative youth expressed outrage, condemning the Iranian regime for allowing this to happen.

Some blame Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, but many hold the policies of previous administrations responsible. Some users also noted that Khamenei, not the president, is Iran’s commander in chief.

The most significant criticism came during a live broadcast on state TV. After confirmation of Nasrallah’s death, a shaken young journalist, reporting from Beirut, launched into a monologue.

He condemned the Iranian regime for years of inaction against the United States and Israel. Notably, he remarked that “we warned for years” that such passivity would lead to dire consequences, especially “striking the head of the resistance.”

He concluded, “Mr. Islamic Republic, wake up!”

Iran’s two exceptions to this passivity have been direct strikes against Israel—once in April and again today. These attacks were failures, but Khamenei did manage to save face in April after President Joe Biden pressured Israel to limit its response to a minor attack on a radar system.

Khamenei could then boast that he had attacked Israel with impunity. As I wrote at the time, this would make another Iranian strike inevitable.

The conservative youth work for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and deploy to Iraq and Syria to fight. They attend religious services and public demonstrations.

Their ideological commitment allows the regime to entrust them with key tasks and offer them special privileges in exchange. Some also work as journalists to promote regime propaganda.

The regime uses them to spy on the population, especially among the young people on university campuses. Most importantly, they crack down on anti-regime protests.

Israel’s almost certain retaliation this time will likely deter future attacks by humiliating Khamenei before his base. More importantly, this embarrassment could prompt the conservative youth to reconsider their loyalty to him.

In other words, Iran has proven incapable of seriously harming Israel. If Israel successfully neutralizes key military sites inside Iran, Khamenei will have failed his mandate.

Iran’s gross domestic product is comparable to that of Bangladesh. Unlike Israel, it receives no military aid and suffers from a corrupt military apparatus that wastes its defense budget.

Its proxy militias in Syria and Iraq are mercenaries, not ideological fighters, and therefore ineffective against a formidable enemy like Israel or the United States.

The state is illegitimate in the eyes of most Iranians. Iran possesses none of the attributes of a regional power and has acted like one only because it has gone unchallenged.

Khamenei has long scared the conservative youth by talking of “the enemy”; in his speeches, he often mentions “the enemy” dozens of times. Simultaneously, he has energized this base by putting Iran at the head of the “axis of resistance.”

Israel’s dismantling of this resistance, combined with its likely humiliation of Iranian air defenses, will delegitimize him further. This could lead to internal instability.

Khamenei is old and ailing. The conservative youth may start looking for a successor who can take the fight to America and Israel, awaiting Khamenei’s eventual death.

Or the Revolutionary Guard Corps may consider a coup to establish a military dictatorship. Assassination attempts or forced abdication are also possible.

Israel has damaged Khamenei’s image. If Israel imposes a heavy toll on Iran for today’s aggression, it will only accelerate the inevitable change in Iran. The question is what form that change will take.

The United States should anticipate this shift and prepare to influence it positively. It must prevent the rise of another supreme leader in the mold of Khamenei or an IRGC-run military dictatorship.

Instead, the United States should exploit Iran’s internal divisions and pursue regime change to effect an optimal outcome.

IranIslamSupreme Leader Ali Khamenei