Few American Jews shifting from Democrats to Republicans over rift with Israel – poll

Accusations of rising antisemitism in the Democratic Party and surging hostility towards Israel have had only a minor impact on how American Jewish voters plan to vote this November, new poll shows.

By World Israel News Staff

A large majority of American Jewish voters still intend to support Democratic candidates in November’s congressional elections, despite growing concerns of antisemitism on the left and an increasingly visible rupture between the Democratic Party and Israel, according to a new national poll.

The survey found that 67% of registered Jewish voters plan to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 26% who intend to support a Republican. The remaining respondents were undecided or supported another option.

The results suggest that the political upheaval over Israel within the Democratic Party has so far produced only a modest shift in the traditionally Democratic Jewish electorate.

The poll comes after months of increasingly sharp Democratic criticism of Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

In July, 103 House Democrats voted for an amendment that would have eliminated $3.3 billion in annual US security assistance to Israel, while 98 Democrats opposed it and 10 voted present. The measure ultimately failed 314-104 after nearly every Republican voted against it.

Several Democratic primary contests have also been won by candidates sharply critical of Israel, including Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s US Senate race. Those developments have fueled Republican efforts to convince Jewish voters that the Democratic Party is moving away from its longstanding support for Israel.

But the new survey indicates that opposition to President Donald Trump and concern about domestic issues remain more important to most Jewish voters.

“Democracy, the cost-of-living and a deep hostility toward Donald Trump are driving the Jewish vote,” said Jim Gerstein, principal at GBAO Strategies, which conducted the survey.

“For Jewish voters, this is an election about stopping Trump,” he added.

Three-quarters of respondents said they disapproved of Trump’s job performance, while just 25% approved. Vice President JD Vance received even weaker ratings, with 82% viewing him unfavorably and only 14% holding a favorable opinion. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was viewed favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 64%.

Vance was substantially less popular even among Jewish Republicans. While 89% of Republican Jewish respondents viewed Trump favorably and 93% had a favorable view of Rubio, only 61% viewed Vance positively.

“As we head into the final two months of the election, Jewish voters are overwhelmingly supporting Democrats for Congress,” Gerstein said.

The survey also showed that Israel remains important to American Jews without being the principal factor determining how most intend to vote.

Some 71% said they were emotionally attached to Israel, while 89% expressed concern about antisemitism in the United States, including 63% who said they were “very concerned.”

But when respondents were asked to identify their two most important political issues, 37% selected the cost of living and affordability, 36% cited the future of democracy and 25% cited antisemitism. Health care was selected by 18%, while Israel ranked fifth at 16%.

At the same time, the poll showed widespread dissatisfaction with Israel’s current government. Sixty-five percent disapproved of its policies regarding Gaza and the West Bank, while 67% viewed Netanyahu unfavorably and 27% viewed him favorably.

“Jews remain emotionally attached to Israel, but they oppose Netanyahu and his policies, and it is a lower-tier voting issue,” Gerstein said. “It’s particularly striking to see the vast majority expressing concern that Trump will not accept the outcome of the election.”

Republican Jewish Coalition political director Sam Markstein rejected the significance of the nationwide Democratic advantage, arguing that Jewish voters in competitive states and districts will ultimately be more consequential.

“The fact that Jewish Democrat groups continue to whistle past the political graveyard while American Jews flee their radicalized party — particularly in places like Michigan — is as pathetic as it is sad,” Markstein said.

National polling, however, shows only limited movement away from Democrats among Jewish voters.

A 2022 survey found that 70% of Jewish voters intended to support Democratic congressional candidates and 24% Republicans. A Jewish Voters Resource Center analysis subsequently estimated that Kamala Harris received about 71% of the Jewish vote in the 2024 presidential election, roughly matching Democratic performance among Jewish voters in the 2012 and 2016 elections.

The latest 67% figure is also unchanged from a Jewish Voters Resource Center survey conducted in late April and early May of this year, which similarly found Democrats leading Republicans 67%-26% among Jewish voters.

The latest survey was conducted by GBAO Strategies for the Jewish Voters Resource Center between August 26 and September 1. It surveyed 800 registered Jewish voters and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. The sample identified as 57% Democratic, 24% independent and 19% Republican.

American JewsDemocratic partyMidterm ElectionRepublican party