The horror of an Iranian nuclear weapon

The question, therefore, is what exactly is to be done to prevent a nuclear catastrophe initiated by Iran, one that could arrive at any moment?

By Nils A. Haug, Gatestone Institute

The primary obligation of any national leader, including Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is to protect the integrity of the country’s borders and to ensure the safety of every citizen.

Netanyahu’s legal, political, and moral duty is to ensure that every citizen can live in peace, and be free, prosperous, and independent.

These objectives of peace, prosperity, and a secure homeland are precisely what the founders of Israel strove for and what led to so many successive defensive wars started by Israel’s antagonists.

Concerningly, at this moment, Israel again faces a genocidal assault by a determined adversary, as Iran races ahead with its nuclear weapons program with one primary aim in mind: the absolute eradication of Israel.

“The nuclear situation in Iran,” the IDF’s Deputy Chief of Staff, General Amir Baram, informed Israel’s Knesset in July, “is like a car with all the parts ready – now they just need to be assembled.”

Israel, given its lack of strategic depth, is in a vulnerable position. “The use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel,” said former Iranian President Akbar Rafsanjani, “will destroy everything.”

That Iran desires nuclear capabilities necessary to wipe-out Israel is unfortunately not a matter of conjecture.

There are many indicators of its intent.

The “Doomsday Clock” in Tehran’s “Palestine Square”, for instance, counts down toward the hour of Israel’s obliteration in 2040.

This April, Iran itself let loose an indiscriminate barrage of more than 300 ballistic missiles and attack drones upon Israel , a country smaller than the state of New Jersey.

The event possibly signaled “the end of ‘Strategic Patience’ and its replacement with a policy of direct retaliation against Israel.”

Since the start of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, — when “The slogan… Death to America, and Death to Israel” was seen and heard almost everywhere” — Iran has hardly been shy about articulating its genocidal objectives against Israel.

Iran’s newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian, in early July, reaffirmed “Tehran’s dedication to destroying Israel.”

This aim, he added, is “rooted in the fundamental policies of the Islamic Republic.”

Earlier, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was recorded as saying, “It is the mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to erase Israel from the map of the region.”

“Israel,” he added separately, “is a hideous entity in the Middle East which will undoubtedly be annihilated.”

There is little realistic hope of altering Iran’s agenda.

In mid-July, the US, again in an exercise of futility, warned Iran against developing nuclear weapons.

This admonition arose after March 2024 report which indicated “Iranian scientists were engaged in computer modelling and metallurgical research” – actions “relevant to nuclear explosive development.”

They will have missiles “in exactly one year,” promised Aziz Rashed, spokesman for Iran’s proxy the Houthis, on July 13, that can “reach Europe or the Atlantic Ocean, so America’s nuclear targets will be within the range of Yemeni missiles.”

An Iranian nuclear weapon, it seems, is far closer to becoming a reality than readily admitted. On July 19, it became evident that circumstances had dramatically accelerated.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken disclosed on July 19 that “Iran is one or two weeks away from producing deadly nuclear fissile material.”

This potential development should be a crisis not only for Israel, but for the West.

The question, therefore, is what exactly is to be done to prevent a nuclear catastrophe initiated by Iran, one that could arrive at any moment?

Strategically, the US should already have acted years ago to prevent Iran’s nuclear program from upending the balance of power in the region beyond, as Netanyahu reminded the US Congress last week:

“In the Middle East, Iran is virtually behind all the terrorism…. When he founded the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini pledged, ‘We will export our revolution to the entire world. We will export the Islamic revolution to the entire world’ … which country ultimately stands in the way of Iran’s maniacal plans to impose radical Islam on the world? … It’s America, the guardian of Western civilization and the world’s greatest power. That’s why Iran sees America as its greatest enemy.

“Last month…. the foreign minister of Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah… said this: ‘This is not a war with Israel. Israel… is merely a tool. The main war, the real war, is with America.'”

Stopping Iran remains a highly contentious issue politically.

The current US administration has for the most part seemed suicidally averse to dramatic deterrent action – and presumably would be more so before a forthcoming election.

Whether or not there are feasible alternatives to the US employing tactical, precision, conventional strikes is the topic of much polemic.

In a July 2024 article published by Royal United Services Institute — the UK’s oldest defence and security “think tank” — the headline reads, “The Limited Options for Managing the Iranian Nuclear Question.”

The outcome of the assessment is that there exists no easy diplomatic means of preventing Iran’s nuclear weapon agenda.

The author, Darya Dolzikova, concedes, “the proposed solutions are imperfect – none guarantee success.”

The options therefore appear restricted to means other than talking.

Apart from military action as a last resort, the only possible way to secure the safety of Israel is through a severe increase in, and enforcement of, economic sanctions and an embargo against Iran’s exports and imports

Such a program had been successfully in place before the current administration came to power in 2021.

The Biden administration waived the sanctions in place, thereby allowing Iran and its proxies hold the world hostage in any way they deemed fit.

Taking full advantage of US prevarication, Iran probably believes it has free rein to terrorize any nations it chooses, with Israel as the current main target.

The lack of political will from the Biden administration and America’s evident weakness through appeasement -– such as sending billions of dollars to Iran –- makes it understandable that Iran pays lip service to America’s professed threats.

By not following them up with concrete action, the US, in Iran’s view, must have become pathetic– as well as in the view of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and China’s President Xi Jinping.

The present crisis in the Middle East is clearly the result of a vacuum of power – the US having, in practice, abdicated its role as the major world power by failing to deter its adversaries.

In the face of America’s refusal to act with resolve on behalf of its allies, including Ukraine, Israel’s options for survival appear limited.

In 2020, Russian General Andrei Sterlin commented that “there is no way to determine if an incoming ballistic missile is fitted with a nuclear or a conventional warhead. The military has to see it as a nuclear attack.”

Israel, the Gulf States, Europe, and the US will soon be in no position to gamble whether a ballistic missile launched from Iran is a nuclear attack or not.

Highlighting Israel’s dilemma, Professor Eyal Zisser of Tel Aviv University believes that “Israel might not have a choice” but to conduct a preventative strike on “Iran’s nuclear sites and Hezbollah’s strategic missile stockpiles.”

How, when, and if they attempt this objective is for them to decide, but time is pressing.

Additional intelligence came to light in July 2024 that Iran is — again — secretly ratcheting up its ballistic missile production.

These missiles could carry a nuclear warhead. Israelis have every reason to be alarmed.

Although Israel’s leaders are well-aware of Iran’s intentions, the US and other Western allies cannot be relied upon to participate or contain Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon.

They have shown that apparently they would rather deal with the situation through ineffectual diplomatic “meetings.”

At the 2024 NATO summit in July, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz highlighted the threat posed to Ukraine and NATO members:

“The Iranian drones and missiles that attack Ukraine and threaten NATO members are the same as those that tried to hit Israel on April 14. Iran is our common enemy.”

Farhad Rezaei similarly stressed the exigent nature of the crisis: “An Iranian bomb could trigger a nuclear race in the Middle East and hasten US withdrawal from the region – a strategic advantage for China” — as well as Iran.

Yet the Biden administration evidently “has no clear Iran strategy” but on the contrary “is willing to make deals with Iranians when it suits them,” the UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights in Iran clarified on July 9, 2024.

In response to an interviewer’s question on June 26, 2024, concerning Iran and a nuclear bomb, Alan Dershowitz, Professor of Law Emeritus at Harvard Law School, replied:

“Israel has to act on its own. Israel has to understand that it can never again count on the unequivocal support of the United States. It can count on some support from the United States, but Israel has to make its own military and political decisions.”

The result? Israel, alone in many respects and forced to act unilaterally, might need to find ways to prevent Iran from attacking it with nuclear weapons.

The stakes could not be higher for Israel — and, as the supposed bastion of Western democratic values, for America.

“Is this war now with Israel?” asked Hezbollah’s head of foreign relations, Khalil Rizk, on Al-Manar TV June 2024.

“My answer is that this is not a war with Israel. Israel is merely a tool. The main war, the real war, is with America.”

And so, the West waits for America’s and Israel’s next moves, designed to protect their people from the potential disaster promised by Iran’s jihadist regime.

Despite diplomatic failure by the US to prevent Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and on the grounds that the US will in all probability fail to act militarily to prevent Iran’s nuclear breakout, Israel on its own may be left to protect both itself and the West.

“The greatest tragedy of the Jewish people,” Nobel Peace Prize laureate Eli Wiesel stated, “is that they listen to the promises of their friends and not the threats of their enemies.”

The leaders of Israel should take seriously the threats of their enemies and act to protect both Israel and the Free World from potential imminent disaster.

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